Selasa, 29 Agustus 2017

The Volatility–Variability Hypotheses Testing and Hedging Effectiveness of Precious Metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian Capital Markets

Author : Robiyanto Robiyanto, Sugeng Wahyudi, Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti

Abstract

This study evaluates the use of futures contracts for precious metals to hedge against stock market risks and their hedging effectiveness on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). This study found that gold was the most effective hedging instrument, since it produced the highest hedging effectiveness both on the IDX and the KLSE among the other precious metals. None of the hedged portfolios had a higher Sharpe’s ratio than the unhedged one on the IDX; however, all the hedged portfolios on the KLSE had a higher Sharpe’s ratio than the unhedged ones. Almost all the hedged portfolios could produce a higher Treynor’s ratio than the unhedged portfolios, both on the IDX and the KLSE. In general, this study concluded that studying some precious metals could reduce the investment risk, which was shown through the variance produced by the smaller portfolios, while gold can improve the risk-adjusted performance.

Keywords

Precious metals; DCC-GARCH; Risk Adjusted Returns; Hedging Effectiveness; Optimal Hedge Ratio
 
https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/article/view/26260

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How to cite:
CHICAGO
Robiyanto, Robiyanto, Sugeng Wahyudi, and Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti. 2017. "The Volatility–Variability Hypotheses Testing and Hedging Effectiveness of Precious Metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian Capital Markets." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business no. 19 (2):167-192. doi: https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.26260.
 
APA
Robiyanto, R., Wahyudi, S., & Pangestuti, I. R. D. (2017). The Volatility–Variability Hypotheses Testing and Hedging Effectiveness of Precious Metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian Capital Markets. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 19(2), 167-192. doi: https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.26260
 
MLA
Robiyanto, Robiyanto, Sugeng Wahyudi, and Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti. "The Volatility–Variability Hypotheses Testing and Hedging Effectiveness of Precious Metals for the Indonesian and Malaysian Capital Markets." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 19.2 (2017): 167-92. Print.
 

Selasa, 29 September 2015

The Javanese Lunar Calendar’s Effect on Indonesian Stock Returns



ABSTRAK

Seorang investor sangat mungkin untuk mengambil keputusan investasinya dengan menggunakan hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan kepercayaan umum dan hal-hal yang bersifat takhyul. Di Indonesia, terdapat sistem penanggalan yang disebut dengan sistem penanggalan Jawa. Pada sistem penanggalan Jawa,  terdapat hari-hari yang dianggap “bernilai lebih” dibandingkan hari yang lain karena kesakralannya seperti hari Kamis Wage dan Jumat Kliwon. Hari Jumat Kliwon dianggap memiliki tingkat “keseraman” yang sama dengan Friday the 13th yang ada di budaya Barat. Penelitian ini berupaya mengkaji pengaruh dari hari-hari yang sakral tersebut terhadap return saham.

Dengan menggunakan analisis GARCH-M, hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat pengaruh  penanggalan Jawa terhadap return saham di Indonesia, namun penanggalan Jawa berpengaruh terhadap tingkat penghindaran risiko investor. Penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa dalam hal penghindaran risiko, perilaku investor di Indonesia dipengaruhi oleh kepercayaan ataupun hal-hal yang bersifat takhyul.

Kata Kunci : Penanggalan Jawa; Anomali Kalender; Efisiensi Pasar Modal; Seasonalitas; GARCH-M.

JEL Classifications : G02; G10.


ABSTRACT

It is very possible for an investor to take a decision based on superstitions and common beliefs. Actually, Indonesia has a specific calendar system called the Javanese lunar calendar. The Javanese calender contains several special days because of their sacred characteristics such as “Kamis Wage” (Thursday Wage) and “Jum’at Kliwon” (Friday Kliwon). The day of Friday Kliwon is often considered to be the most frightening which is similar to Friday the Thirteenth in Western culture. This study tried to scrutinize the impact of those sacred days on Indonesian stock returns.

By applying GARCH-M, the finding shows that the Javanese lunar calendar does not have any impact on the Indonesian stock returns, but does affect the investors’ risk aversion level. This study has proven that, in terms of risk aversion, investors' behavior in Indonesia is influenced by superstition.

Key words: Javanese Lunar Calendar; Calendar Anomaly; Capital Market Efficiency; Seasonality; GARCH-M.

JEL Classifications : G02; G10.

Link : http://journal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb/article/view/6906

Dikutip : 
MLA 

Robiyanto, Robiyanto, and Siti Puryandani. "The Javanese Lunar Calendar’s Effect on Indonesian Stock Returns." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 17.2 (2015).
 
APA
Robiyanto, R., & Puryandani, S. (2015). The Javanese Lunar Calendar’s Effect on Indonesian Stock Returns. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 17(2).
 
Chicago
Robiyanto, Robiyanto, and Siti Puryandani. "The Javanese Lunar Calendar’s Effect on Indonesian Stock Returns." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 17, no. 2 (2015).

Rabu, 28 Januari 2015

Cara Menormalkan Data Penelitian



Cara Menormalkan Data Penelitian

Oleh :
Robiyanto

Seringkali dalam melakukan penelitian, kita menghadapi masalah data penelitian yang tidak normal. Hal ini sebenarnya wajar dan tidak berarti kita salah dalam melakukan penelitian.Sebagai contoh, berbagai penelitian di dunia seringkali menemukan bahwa data return saham maupun return pasar modal cenderung tidak normal dengan karakteristik menceng ke kiri, memiliki kelancipan Leptokurtik dan terindikasi adanya heteroskedastisitas.
Apabila kita menggunakan suatu teknik analisis misalnya teknik analisis regresi yang mensyaratkan bahwa data harus terdistribusi normal
Oleh sebab itu perlu diambil langkah-langkah tertentu untuk menormalkan data tersebut. Adapun cara-cara menormalkan data adalah sebagai berikut :
 


Keterangan :
SQRT = Melakukan transformasi data dengan akar pangkat 2
Ln        = Melakukan transformasi data dengan Logaritma Natural
Bentuk histogram dilihat dari skewness (kemencengan)

Apabila setelah dilakukan metode-metode di atas, data tetap terdistribusi tidak normal, maka perlu dilakukan analisis yang mengakomodasi adanya ketidaknormalan data.